AXA IM: UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?
AXA IM: UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?
![Brexit.jpg Brexit.jpg](/l/nl/library/download/urn:uuid:b8075976-e040-4687-b963-8a528d9972b9/brexit.jpg)
Onderstaand de belangrijkste punten uit een onderzoek van David Page, Head of Macro Research bij AXA IM, gericht op de komende verkiezingen in het Verenigd Koninkrijk.
UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?
In his latest research paper, David Page, senior economist at AXA Investment Managers, provides a detailed analysis on the outlook for the upcoming General Election in the UK.
Key points include:
• The General Election on 12 December will set the course for the UK’s exit – or not – from the European Union and the next phase of Brexit.
• The Tories enjoy a clear lead in the polls, suggesting an outright majority. But the complex dynamics of political pluralism in the UK’s first-past-the-post system casts doubt on this apparent clarity.
• A small Tory majority appears the most likely outcome and should allow the government to pass its deal to achieve Brexit on 31 January.
• We forecast that this outcome could deliver GDP growth of 1.2% in 2020 and 1.0% 2021, reflecting expectations of a renewed global deceleration in 2021. We see the Bank of England leaving rates on hold in 2020 but expect gilt yields and sterling to rise.
• Given low conviction surrounding any election outcome, we look at a number of alternative economic scenarios. Most see uncertainty remaining elevated, but this is likely to be significantly offset by material fiscal easing.