Swissquote Bank: Another bad surprise?

Swissquote Bank: Another bad surprise?

13 mei 2024

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There is a chance that we see another bad surprise given the surge in many regional Fed surveys.

Later this week US inflation data will land. ‘A consensus of analyst estimates on Bloomberg survey points at a small improvement in both headline and core measures. If that’s the case, investors could breathe a sigh of relief and enjoy the dovish news from other central banks,’ Swissquote Bank looks ahead today. ‘We would then see the euro and sterling extend gains against the dollar, the yields ease and stock markets surf on a fresh wave of optimism.’

‘But if the numbers surprise to the upside for the fourth straight month, it will be hard to keep the Fed hawks contained. The dollar index kicks off the week a touch above the 105 level, the S&P500 is at a spitting distance from an ATH level, the US 2-year yield spiked to 4.87% on Friday, and activity on Fed funds futures gives around 60% chance for a September rate hike from the Fed. It will be interesting to see how the things will evolve from now to the end of the week.’ ‘There is a chance that we see another bad surprise given the surge in many regional Fed surveys.’

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