JP Morgan AM: Softening domestic inflation is good news for the Fed
JP Morgan AM: Softening domestic inflation is good news for the Fed
May’s US inflation print was well received by markets. Both headline and core measures came in below expectations, but it was the softening of 'super core' inflation that was the most welcome news for the Federal Reserve (Fed).
This measure of core services excluding shelter provides the clearest picture of domestic inflationary pressures and policymakers have stressed its importance to their decision making. After accelerating for seven straight months, May saw its contribution to inflation fall.
The Fed will still want to see more data that reinforces this cooler trend before acting, and US policymakers’ latest projections saw two cuts removed from the 2024 forecast. But while we don’t expect changes to policy in the immediate future, the door is still open to rate cuts later in the year.
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