Outlook 2025: Marco Wilner, GSAM

Outlook 2025: Marco Wilner, GSAM

3 januari 2025

Vooruitzichten Outlook 2025
Marco Willner (photo archive GSAM) 980x600.jpg

By Marco Wilner, Co-Head of Dynamic Asset Allocation, Multi-Asset Solutions, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

 

What are the main opportunities and threats for 2025?

‘The US elections are providing fresh impetus for financial markets. In the ongoing transition period, there is still uncertainty about new policies, for instance in the area of trade, immigration, taxes and spending. The appointments of the new US administration and clarity on the upcoming agenda will be a key factor going forward. The statements in the days after the election point in the direction of additional stimulus, which should support stocks assets in the next year.

Beyond fiscal policies, opportunities arise from further interest rate reductions. The dialing back of restrictive monetary policy presents opportunities in equities and bonds. Investors may benefit from sustained earnings growth in the stock market, while bonds could fulfil their strategic role as a source of income and diversification, especially given the return of a negative equity-bond correlation. Additionally, the resilience of US consumers and strong corporate balance sheets provide support for market stability. We believe active investment strategies, effective diversification, and strong risk management can help investors navigate the path ahead.

Threats, however, remain significant. A bigger slowdown in US employment or steeper declines in consumer spending could pose a threat to our soft-landing scenario. Policy uncertainty could heighten market volatility, while global trade tensions look likely to stay elevated. Political uncertainty in Europe and ongoing economic challenges in China also pose risks. Overall, it’s important to remain vigilant and flexible, favoring strategies that can enhance portfolios’ resilience, while being nimble enough to capture opportunities as conditions change.’

 

Overall, it’s important to remain vigilant and flexible.

 

 

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