Amundi: Scenarios and forecasts for coming decade
Amundi unveils its 2025 Capital Market Assumptions (CMA), which provide a long-term economic outlook across 43 asset classes over the next 30 years. These assumptions and resulting long-term expected returns are a framework for investors’ strategic asset allocation.
Vincent Mortier, Group CIO of Amundi, said: 'Structural changes – such as wider AI adoption – and current valuation levels mean a shift in the pattern of returns with big implications for strategic asset allocation. Bonds are back, and the focus for equities moves away from the US towards Europe and Asia. Returns from private assets will gradually normalise, but they will remain a key diversification engine.'
Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, added: 'In a pivoting world marked by rising nationalism and geopolitical fragmentation, Europe has the potential to boost its competitiveness. Asia is emerging as a global tech powerhouse, and the US will continue to reap the benefits of AI. While these trends point to a favourable growth/inflation mix for the next decade, long-term growth faces challenges from deteriorating demographic dynamics, high debt and climate impacts.'
Central scenario for the next decade
Compared to last year’s edition, our 2025 central scenario incorporates evolution in key structural trends. We factor in socio-economic developments resulting from increased geopolitical tensions and regional rivalry, the progressive redistribution of the world’s population, and further delays and fragmentation in the energy transition. We also assess the impact of AI on global growth through higher granularity at a country level.
Strategic asset allocation the next decade - 2025-2034
Despite rising uncertainties, the reset of valuation gaps means 10-year expected returns are higher across the board than in last year’s assumptions. With a greater emphasis on diversification, we project the optimised 60-40 strategic asset allocation to deliver returns of around 7% for US dollar-based investors and 6% for euro-based investors.
Bonds remain a stable anchor, but some shifts in risky assets offer opportunities for higher returns, particularly in equities and private debt.
