Monex: Lot Britse pond blijft een dubbeltje op zijn kant

10 dec 2018

Hieronder volgt een kort commentaar in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de Brexit gebeurtenissen van vanochtend, de Brexit stemming van morgen en uiteraard de effecten hiervan op sterling.

The European Court of Justice finally confirmed what the market already believed after weeks of rumours – that the UK could withdraw Article 50 unilaterally.

This prompted a brief flurry from the pound this morning, however, sterling remains reluctant to disconnect from the $1.27 handle. Optimism from the news was likely capped due to the inconceivable possibility that May would undermine her own authority and delay the Brexit timeline further. Tomorrow’s vote will likely go ahead for the same reason after No. 10 continued to stress it would. Therefore, tomorrow remains firmly in the diary as the main event after an 18-month build up. News on the street suggests that further Ministerial resignations are expected should the meaningful vote go ahead. This does little but confirm that May has an arduous task on her hand and that sterling will explode into life in the coming 48 hours.

Tomorrow remains a test of arithmetic for the market as it blows the dust off of constitutional law textbooks. It is highly expected that May will suffer defeat, but the magnitude of the loss is what matters. Should it be a whitewash, the possibility of a second referendum or a new government creeps back into the picture. However, if May’s deal faces a marginal loss, a few cosmetic tweaks will likely see it through in the New Year. But with the market largely pricing in a marginal loss currently, sterling may explode to the upside if a deal wiggles its way through the Commons.

Monex Europe GBPUSD forecast: