ASI: Amerikaanse grootbanken staan er goed voor

11 jan 2019

Hieronder vindt u een commentaar van Jon Curran, senior beleggingsstrateeg bij Aberdeen Standard Investments, over de verwachte bedrijfscijfers van de Amerikaanse grootbanken.

Hieronder vindt u een commentaar van Jon Curran, senior beleggingsstrateeg bij Aberdeen Standard Investments, over de verwachte bedrijfscijfers van de Amerikaanse grootbanken.

“I’m not expecting any big surprises from the largest US banks when they report 4Q earnings next week - rather, mostly more of the same. I think we’ll hear about the capital markets choppiness toward the end of the quarter and what impact that volatility had on their markets-based results. And, likely some comments on the ever changing shape of the yield curve and what impact that’ll have on margins. But, for the full-year 2018, I suspect we’ll hear margins have mostly benefitted from higher rates. The good news is the US money centers have diversified businesses, and while certainly exposed to markets, have other offsetting revenue drivers. For what it’s worth, the recently lower mortgage rates - driven by lower US Treasury yields - could well be a boon for banks’ mortgage lending. And, on the expense side, I’m sure we’ll hear remarks about continued cost control as banks battle to bring their efficiency ratios lower.

If we look at the three aspects of the banks’ balance sheet - capital, liquidity/funding, and asset quality - the three form a good story fundamentally. Capital levels remain solid, and while bank management teams are guiding for them to go slightly down over time, they still offer sufficient cushion for bond holders. Liquidity profiles of the largest US banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America benefit from entrenched deposit footprints with still low funding costs. Funding needs for these and other peer banks thus rely less on the wholesale markets, a positive factor. As it stands now, asset quality remains strong and stable - we may hear some remarks on delinquencies ticking up, but we have to view that in the context of moves off historically low loss levels.

So, we think the largest US banks stand on firm fundamental footing now, with diverse businesses, and also less funding needs in the capital markets than last year. This last point should confer a positive technical on bank bonds with less of a supply overhang on the sector. That said, and if history is any guide, we should expect to see banks come to market with some new debt offerings next week, as they’ll already have investors’ attention at earnings time."