BNY Mellon: Brexit, Another Vote

29 jan 2019

By Simon Derrick, Chief Currency Strategist

Today the House of Commons votes on the next steps it wishes to take regarding Brexit

Today sees a full day's debate on the UK government's next steps under Section 13 of the EU (Withdrawal) Act in the House of Commons.

What amendments have been proposed to the government’s plan?

14 amendments to the motion on the prime minister’s statement to the House on January 21 have been proposed.

Commons Speaker John Bercow will decide which of them MPs will vote on. He is expected to choose around six, and will take into account how many MPs have indicated their support for each plan in making his decision.

Amendments which direct the Government can carry significant political force but are not legally binding, while amendments on how the Commons functions are binding.

The amendments include:

Could the Cooper amendment pass?

If it were passed then how long could Article 50 realistically be extended for?

Could the Brady amendment pass?

If it were passed the how would the EU likely react?

Is there support for the Grieve amendment?

A second referendum?

Opinion polling on voting intentions in a second referendum

- 45% said they would vote to remain in the EU if there were to be a second referendum and this was the alternative offered to voting for the PM's deal

- 35% of those surveyed said they would vote for the PM’s deal

- 12% said they did not know

- 8% said they would not vote.

- Remain backed by 56%

- Leave by 44%.

What might happen if Eurosceptics are threatened with an event that could potentially leave the UK in the EU?

What happens if no amendments pass?

Lack of broad market stress

Market stress around today