Monex: Europese Inkoopmanagerindices laten alle opties open voor Lagarde

3 jul 2019

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de Europese inkoopmanagersindices (PMI’s). De maakindustrie inkoopmanagersindices van eerder deze week waren dramatisch, maar de dienstensector blijft een baken van hoop voor de eurozone economie. Sterker nog, angsten dat de zwakke prestaties van de maakindustrie zouden overslaan naar de meer nationaal georiënteerde dienstensector blijken tot nu toe ongegrond. Wel geeft de zwakke prijsdruk de aanstaande ECB President Chrisitine Lagarde alle reden om een sterk verruimend beleid te blijven voeren – mocht zij dit willen.

Eurozone service sector picks up the baton the manufacturing sector dropped. Service sector PMI edged up to 52.2 in June, its best reading in nine months, while the Manufacturing PMI fell close to a multiyear low at 47.6 earlier on Monday. On virtually every subcategory services outperform manufacturing, be it employment growth, new orders or the change in backlogs. This reading, therefore, confirms the narrative that has described the Eurozone economy over the last quarters; lower external demand hits manufacturing hard, while tight labour markets and rising wages boost the domestic demand of which the service sector is the main beneficiary.

The best news one can distil from today’s PMI report is that the contagion from dismal manufacturing data into the more domestically oriented services industry so far remains non-existent. This may lead to sighs of relieve being breathed in capitals all across the continent, however, in Frankfurt central bankers may still choke on their coffees as they read this report. Price pressures namely continue to lose their momentum, with input costs rising at their slowest pace since November 2016 while output price increases were near two-year lows.

 This deals the new European Central Bank President Chrisitine Lagarde a mixed hand, as the domestic Eurozone economy for now appears to remain somewhat resilient to the slowdown in global growth, while inflation pressures remain elusive. In the past, she has made favourable remarks about Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes speech” and the potential for deflationary pressures hidden in the data will definitely give her the justification to pull a similar ace from her sleeve – if she’s wishes to do so.