Monex: Krater Duitse maakindustrie data zuigt ook ECB naar ruimer beleid

24 jul 2019

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de Duitse inkoopmanager Index voor de industrie (PMI) van juli die vanmorgen bekend is gemaakt en die een somber beeld schetst van de staat van deze sector. Het activiteitsniveau daalde namelijk naar het laagste niveau in zeven jaar, waarbij er voorzichtige tekenen zijn dat de dienstensector wel eens besmet kan raken door de malaise in de industriële sector.

De negatieve groei in de Duitse maakinudstrie draagt er verder aan bij dat de vraag voor de Europese Centrale Bank niet is of het monetaire beleid verruimd gaat worden, maar wanneer. Het agressievere monetaire beleid van de ECB ondersteunt de verwachting van Monex dat nog in Q3l de euro het 1,10 niveau tegenover de Amerikaanse dollar gaat testen.

EUR sinks further as German Manufacturing PMI craters

Politicians trip, stars fall and German manufacturing is introducing a new tradition of cratering lately.

The German Flash July Purchasing Manufacturing Index fell to a seven year low at 43.1, a shocker after two months of cautious improvements in this sector. The bad news we already knew was that weak export demand is a drag on German manufacturers, which got confirmed once again this month as both new orders and export sales continued their recent free fall. The bad news that’s novel – and pretty alarming – is that there are signs this manufacturing meekness is spilling over into services sector softness as well. Optimism among services providers hit a three-and-a-half year low, which suggests the increases in current business activity carried by a solid domestic demand may be running on its last legs.

Odds are on the rise the European Central Bank will grasp this data point to justify an aggressive loosening of monetary policy either on Thursday or in September. Such worsening macroeconomic conditions come on top of falling inflation expectations shown both in the pricing of inflation swaps, as in business surveys like the PMI. This stacking of negative risks means the ECB has nowhere else to turn but to the dovish path and the question has become 'when', not so much 'if' the ECB will further loosen policies.

Eventually, such a dovish ECB supports our base case that the euro has more ground to lose against the dollar still, with EURUSD expected to test the 1.10 level still in Q3.