LCG: Trade optimism, FTSE 2-month high, Corbyn’s crash interview

LCG: Trade optimism, FTSE 2-month high, Corbyn’s crash interview

November 27, 2019

Equity Financial markets
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European markets have opened higher on Wednesday. Asian markets were mostly positive with China the exception to the rule. Wall Street is set to open on a positive note later. Oil prices are positive on Wednesday while gold is on the backfoot.

Trade optimism Trumps China data

Enduring optimism the US can reach an interim trade deal with China has helped investors overlook disappointing Chinese economic data. The steepest fall in Chinese industrial profits in eight months suggest China is still feeling the heat from the trade war on top of a more widespread growth slowdown. Inventors can stomach a slowdown in China if they see an endpoint via the phase one trade deal. If the deal doesn’t materialise and the data out of China continues to weaken, then things could go south quickly.

FTSE 2-month high – UK shares breaking out?

The FTSE 100 is at key overhead resistance at 7,450, a level that capped recent rallies in September and earlier this month. Some will view a breakout as the beginning of a new bullish trend in UK shares.  The equity benchmark up at 2-month highs is more about global growth than the December election. Wednesday’s top early risers are Asia-focused HSBC alongside mining shares, which all stand to benefit from China striking a trade deal with the US. UK domestic companies are marred in election uncertainty – that explains the relative under performance of UK vs European shares this year. The question that fund managers are asking themselves is whether current valuations offer an opportunity to buy UK plc on the cheap. For those interested in the relatively low valuations we think that from a timing standpoint, the election still has the chance to throw up some volatility that would offer lower entry levels.

GBP: Corbyn’s Car Crash TV interview

A TV interview widely-seen as a ‘car crash’ is focusing attention on the Labour leader. In fairness to Jeremy Corbyn, not many politicians come out unscathed from an interview with the BBC’s Andrew Neil. MPs rarely have their numbers right on policy pledges, and when they do its often something they want to hide. The interview won’t change the result of the election and we’ve seen little reaction in financial markets. What it does is highlight a big reason why Labour probably won’t win the election, their leader. If you're taking a view that a Boris-win is positive for UK markets, this interview won't have dissuaded you. There is a whole gambit of polling taking place, which of course are all open to debate. Our take from poll results is that swing voters are sticking with Labour despite Jeremy Corbyn or leaving Labour because of Corbyn. An unpopular leader makes winning a tight election very difficult.

US opening calls

S&P 500 to open 7 points higher at 3,147

Dow Jones to open 49 points higher at 28,170

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