J.P. Morgan AM: A strong consumer has supported the US economy
J.P. Morgan AM: A strong consumer has supported the US economy
November is a busy time for retailers globally, with the US and China hosting two of the largest shopping events of the year: Cyber Week and Singles’ Day.
In China, the reluctance of major retailers to fully disclose their sales figures indicated that sales during the shopping ‘bonanza’ may have been relatively lacklustre. This consumer caution is in stark contrast to the US, where holiday spending across November and December is expected to grow between 3 to 4% year on year based on figures from the National Retail Federation, hitting record levels in the process.
The divergence in consumer confidence between the world’s two largest economies has likely been a large factor behind their varying degrees of economic resilience. In our view, however, we see potential for this gap to close somewhat next year, as the Chinese economy continues its post-Covid recovery and the US consumer loses steam.
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