abrdn: Inflation US is old news

abrdn: Inflation US is old news

September 12, 2024

Inflation United States
Inflatie (04)

US inflation came in a little firmer than expected in August, with the core measure up a robust 0.3% m/m, the largest gain since March, said James McCann, Economist at abrdn. 

Shelter surprised to the upside, with different measures of rents continuing to show quite a lot of heat. Other services inflation was also quite firm, although core goods prices continue to fall, providing some helpful disinflationary tailwinds to the economy, McCann added.

'With the pace of private payrolls gains slowing to a 10-year low through this summer, and the unemployment rate trending higher, the deeper concern might be that the economy is losing steam quite rapidly, reigniting the risk of a downturn. Indeed, the Fed looks set to cut rates by 25bps at every meeting this year, with the bar for larger 50bps moves not particularly high if we were to see further growth scares.'

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