MFS: Presidentschap Trump goed voor Amerikaanse aandelen, dollar en goud

MFS: Presidentschap Trump goed voor Amerikaanse aandelen, dollar en goud

November 7, 2024

US Elections
Trump (Photo credits heblo)

The likely policy mix under a second Trump administration is seen as intensifying an already expansive US fiscal policy, potentially leading to modestly higher US Treasury yields, especially at the long end of the US yield curve, though aggressive trade restrictions could eventually weigh on economic growth, limiting rate rises.

However, given the US’s already-tenuous fiscal position, we think there are growing risks that investors will demand greater compensation via higher term premia on US Treasuries given the uncertainties associated with Trump’s unorthodox mix of policies.

The prospect of lower corporate tax rates, reduced levels of regulation and other pro-growth policies are generally seen as supportive of US equities. Non-US equities could face headwinds from rising trade tensions, with European and emerging markets seen as the most vulnerable.

US small caps, given their domestic focus and sensitivity to tax rates, are seen as potential winners under Trump. Fossil fuel stocks and financial (thanks to likely lighter regulation) stand to benefit from Trump’s victory. Conversely, green energy stocks could face a more challenging environment ahead.

The expected policy mix in a second Trump administration has boosted the dollar in anticipation of his victory and the greenback could extend its gains over the medium term as, historically, the currency of the country that imposes tariffs tends to appreciate versus the country whose goods face levies.

EUR/USD, USD/CNY and USD/MXN are some of the currencies to watch given that Europe, China and Mexico are in the crosshairs of Trump’s tariffs. Gold has been a beneficiary of the 'Trump trade' as some investors seek non-dollar safe havens amid an unsettled geopolitical backdrop. Cryptocurrency investors in particular expect a friendlier regulatory backdrop under Trump.

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