Harry Geels: Five causes of rise of conservative populism

February 25, 2025

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Harry Geels

The fact that the majority of Germans voted for conservative policies the day before yesterday – fewer rules, fewer taxes and fewer immigrants – is a new indication of the strong rise of ‘conservative populism’ in the world. There are five deeper causes behind this political movement. Spoiler: it is not about the increase in the number of immigrants. They are merely being used as a scapegoat.

In the most recent German elections, the CDU under party leader Friedrich Merz became the largest political party. AfD came in second, which means that more than half of German voters voted conservative. There are many parallels with what is happening elsewhere in the world, for example in the US. Merz has a background in the financial world, at BlackRock. Like Donald Trump and Javier Milei, he stands for a strict immigration policy, less bureaucracy and the removal of fiscal obstacles. He has a provocative attitude and is averse to consensus.

If Merz had not been the leader of the CDU, the AfD would probably have become larger. With his conservative views, he is an acceptable alternative for many potential AfD voters who are concerned about the state of the German economy and immigration. The EU and many political analysts seem relieved that the AfD did not become the largest party. Nevertheless, Germany is also undergoing a major political shift towards conservatism or conservative populism.

This is a global trend. In the media, especially from progressive quarters, there is surprise, sometimes even outright confusion, about what is happening in politics, with Donald Trump as the most talked-about bogeyman. There is – partly rightly – outrage about his dominant and chauvinistic leadership style. Terms such as ‘extreme right’ or ‘dumb right’ are also often used. These are completely useless terms, more about which later. More important is a good analysis of the causes. This creates understanding and an opening for a counter-reaction.

1) Erosion of trust in government institutions

One of the most important problems, and thus one of the causes behind the rise of conservative populism, is the waning confidence in official institutions, while mutual trust between people and organisations is the most important basis for prosperity. Without trust, no transactions take place, no matter what kind. The ‘unreliable government’ is a much-used term. Many people are running up against a wall of bureaucracy. To top it all off, confidence in money has also declined, partly due to high inflation.

The increases in the value of houses, gold and crypto currencies are expressions of this lack of confidence. But it is not only the institutions that are mistrusted. The same fate has befallen scientists, large corporations and the media. Part of society rejects ‘expert opinions’. This plays into the hands of leaders who oppose (the elite of) the large (public) organisations. And if democracy does not work so well for parts of society, it is apparently not so bad if leaders take a less strict approach to that democracy.

2) Economic fear

Secondly, there is a lot of economic uncertainty among people. Inequality has increased in many Western countries, especially in the US. At the same time, there is monetary devaluation and the costs of basic necessities such as housing, healthcare and education have risen sharply. And then there is the ever-increasing amount of debt in the world that needs to be repaid. A lack of economic confidence creates an environment in which people look for strong leaders who will stand up for change and scapegoats.

3) Internet and radicalisation

The third cause takes us to the echo chambers of the internet and the bubble-enhancing algorithms of social media. In the past, there was much more ‘control’ over the gathering and processing of information. This took place via school, family and a few paper-based media. Now it is much easier for people to isolate themselves, to allow themselves to be influenced by ‘memetic propaganda’, or to easily join groups with whom they can share the same fate or social problems. This makes it easier for populism to spread.

4) Crisis of masculinity

For many men, the world is changing rapidly. More women than men are now graduating from higher education. The income gap is closing. When equally qualified, women are given preference over men for jobs. Partly due to the rapid growth of dating apps, the so-called ‘Tall Girl Problem’ has arisen, with rough estimates saying that between 30% and 50% of men are ‘undateable’. There are ‘incels’, ‘red and black pillers’. They become violent, or seek solace in each other or in male role models.

5) The progressive ideal of social engineering is crumbling

The credibility of rules and government plans to solve alleged crises is visibly declining. In the perception of many, these crises have grown. The climate, inequality, immigration and housing crises have not been resolved (or only partially resolved), despite the fact that progressive parties have also been in power. It appears that there are limits to our welfare state. All of this creates fertile ground for radically different policies, like the chainsaw of Milei and Musk in bureaucracy.

Systemic names

It is difficult to give the current political movement the right name. This time I have chosen the term conservative populism, with conservative referring to the tendency to retreat into one's own country or region (and often also to Christian values), and populism referring to leaders who, rightly or wrongly, present themselves as saviours of the common people, often with overly simplistic solutions, such as reducing the number of migrants. For the US, we can also use the term Trumpism or Trumponomics. ‘What's in a name?

Other terms that come close to describing current developments are “authoritarian nationalism” or “national conservatism”. “Paleoconservatism” is also a less common, but interesting name. I have once categorised most political systems into four quadrants, partly to demonstrate that the left-right frame no longer fits the current spirit of the times. It is too simplistic, too polarising, and does not contribute to the analysis and solution of current problems. Unfortunately, however, the frame seems difficult to eradicate.

The (attempt at a) solution

The solution to the ‘problem’ of conservative populism is not to portray its supporters as stupid, extreme, fascist or misogynistic. The focus should be on the underlying causes. This means starting with restoring trust in the government: the less pretentious and bureaucratic the government is, the sooner that trust can be restored. As a result, we must strive for a better functioning democracy and better monetary and fiscal policy, the release of social media algorithms, a cultural change in the application of partner criteria, and so on.

This article contains the personal opinion of Harry Geels

More columns by Harry Geels