Harry Geels: EU wants to rise again on geopolitical unrest
This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.
By Harry Geels
Ursula von der Leyen counters Donald Trump's ‘Art of the Deal’ with a touch of Sun Tzu's ‘Art of War’. As the world order falters, she seizes her chance to revive the EU. But behind her rhetoric lie three dangers.
In a recent interview in Die Zeit, Ursula von der Leyen stated: ‘The West as we knew it no longer exists. [...] We need a different, new Europe that is ready to go out into the world and play a very active role in shaping this new world order.’ The interview reminds me of a quote from Sun Tzu's The Art of War: ‘If you wait long enough by the river, the corpses of your enemies will float by.’ Could Von der Leyen have read Sun Tzu's book?
In the interview, she positions herself, somewhat threateningly, as the representative of an important market, especially for Big Tech: ‘For them, Europe is an attractive, rich market with 450 million people who, compared to the rest of the world, have a high standard of living and a lot of free time. This means that huge revenues and profits can be made here with digital services. No company wants to lose access to this market.'
Three arguments in favour of Von der Leyen's argument
To be fair, from Von der Leyen's position, it is understandable that she wants to strengthen the role of the EU and, directly, her own role, for three reasons. Firstly, a certain degree of strategic autonomy seems necessary in a multipolar world. The world order is shifting rapidly: the US has become more unpredictable under Trump, China more assertive, Russia more aggressive. Europe must become less dependent on technology and raw materials from these countries. It is a call for greater self-determination.
Secondly, she is positioning the EU as the guardian of global norms and values. Thanks to Europe's economic weight and focus on human rights and sustainability, the EU can contribute to shaping a just and stable world order, something that is needed now that international institutions are weakening. The third argument is that Europe can strengthen its internal cohesion. History shows that European integration has often been accelerated by external pressure.
Three arguments against Von der Leyen's case
Now for three reasons to be critical of Von der Leyen. New cooperation measures are often taken beyond the reach of direct democratic control. National parliaments are effectively sidelined. The European Commission holds the power. The European Parliament is nothing more than a dog that sometimes barks but rarely bites. Pointing the finger at possible democratic deficits in Trump's policy is like the pot calling the kettle black.
Secondly, in practice, a more assertive EU also leads to more protectionism, more strategic industrial policy and more military investment. This not only hinders free trade, but also innovation and ultimately global prosperity. Thirdly, Von der Leyen seems to want to impose a common European culture. This is unnecessary. Europe's strength lies in its diversity. It should not be forced into a single mould. Each country's own economic and cultural dynamics provide diversity and resilience.
To conclude
The financial markets now seem to find Europe and the euro more interesting than the US, as evidenced by the rise in European share prices and the euro. With the usual opportunism that is familiar to many people and the media, even the euro is suddenly being described as a credible reserve currency, provided that the necessary steps towards further integration are taken (because the euro system is still far from optimal). From a continent plagued by slow growth, high energy prices and bureaucracy to a new hegemony.
But if we are not careful, Von der Leyen's argument will be about expanding the power of the EU without the necessary democratic underpinnings. Admittedly, world politics seems more than ever to have become a power game, and it is therefore logical that the EU is claiming its role. It is also interesting to observe how a woman relates to the male pitbulls. Perhaps it is not the one with the loudest voice who wins, but the one who best understands when to strike.
The Art of War, made in Brussels.
This article contains the personal opinion of Harry Geels
