BNY Mellon: The Aerial View: China Update
BNY Mellon: The Aerial View: China Update
Certainly, alternative measures long favored by some continue to point to a fairly robust performance from the Chinese economy: for example, electricity consumption grew by 8.9% y/y over the first three quarters – the fastest pace in six years - and rail freight volumes rose by 7.9% y/y over the same period.
Certainly, alternative measures long favored by some continue to point to a fairly robust performance from the Chinese economy: for example, electricity consumption grew by 8.9% y/y over the first three quarters – the fastest pace in six years - and rail freight volumes rose by 7.9% y/y over the same period.
But then, not only do the conventional figures point to a slowing economy with a growing consistency – encapsulated, perhaps, by the slowest GDP growth rate since 2009 - but evidence of diminishing returns to Beijing’s efforts in supporting growth is there for all to see.
Yesterday, we learnt that industrial profit growth slowed for a sixth consecutive month in October (3.6% versus 4.1% in September). Producer price inflation, widely seen as a proxy for the strength of industrial demand, has now slowed for four consecutive months