Monex: Chinese yuan reageert nauwelijks op neerwaartse bijstelling economische groei China

Mar 5, 2019

Door Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de neerwaartse bijstelling van de groei van de Chinese economie - naar het laagste punt sinds 1990. De Chinese yuan reageert nauwelijks, wat kan komen omdat het slechte nieuws al is ingeprijsd, maar wellicht ook omdat deze ontwikkeling laat zien dat de Chinezen hun hoge schuldniveaus serieus nemen.

The Chinese yuan appeared to have almost stoically accepted the downgrade of 2019 Chinese economy growth growth forecast to its lowest rates since 1990 at 6-6.5%, accompanied by the rare admission that trade tensions with the US are at least partially to blame for this.

 The fact the yuan didn’t jolt on the downgrade at one hand can be explained by the fact this was widely expected, after Manufacturing PMIs sharply deteriorated earlier, pointing to a potential contraction in this vital sector in this year. Another explanation could be that markets appreciate the wisdom of Chinese policymakers to let go their growth target in favour of deleveraging their high debt levels. In the short run this may imply lower growth, but in the long run this may mean more financial stability - or at least the staving off of a hard landing after sudden debt crisis. The latter is a real concern, as defaults on corporate debt are rising and levels of bad debt at Chinese banks are approaching their highest level in 20 years.

Looking forward it appears there may be some room for the Chinese yuan to strengthen, as the negative economic impacts of the trade war have already been priced into the currency, if we go to by the lack of CNY reaction this morning. There seems some upside for the currency as a deal on trade with the US appeared to have gotten closer over the weekend to roll back tariffs.