PIMCO: Verwachtingen ECB-besluit Andrew Bosomworth

Sep 6, 2019

Onderstaand de verwachtingen van hoofd portfoliomanagement Duitsland Andrew Bosomworth van vermogensbeheerder Pimco van het ECB-besluit op 12 september.

• For Sep 12th we expect a 10bp cut of the deposit facility rate to -0.5%, tiering, an unchanged main refinancing rate at 0% and 30bn/m of net asset purchases for 6-9 months.
• While forward rates price in a reduction of the deposit facility rate to minus 0.8% by the end of 2020 we believe that the ECB is likely to act slower than market expectations in delivering further cuts pending evidence on: side effects of the negative deposit rate, the efficacy of tiering, the fiscal capacity and willingness of governments to act as well as overall macro- and geopolitical developments.
• Monetary policy is exhausted and is losing its effectiveness; the low interest rate environment and negative yields will continue unless fiscal policy becomes more expansionary. Further interest rate cuts below the zero line, on the other hand, could even endanger the stability of the financial system.