Swissquote Bank: Trumpforia and cryptos

Nov 12, 2024

And when there is a comprehensive and solid policy ground, the banks could more comfortably integrate cryptocurrencies on their platforms and attract more institutional money on board. More demand should push the price of Bitcoin – which has a limited supply – higher. Eyes are on the $100K mark and above. High volatility will be on the menu for Xmas.

Elsewhere, the S&P500 consolidated gains near ATH level, while small caps extended rally by 1.5% despite the rising US yields – which should become a challenge for the US small caps as the post-election euphoria settles.

In the traditional currencies, the US dollar index is pushing higher along with the US yields on expectation that Trump’s pro-growth policies and tariffs would lead to higher inflation and softer-than-otherwise policy easing from the Federal Reserve. That’s in contrast with the worsening economic and political outlook for the Eurozone, with Germany preparing for a snap election on government’s inability to tackle the financial difficulties and revive growth. The euro tanked to 1.0628 against the US dollar, and to 0.8260 against the pound yesterday. The German and the Eurozone economic sentiment indicators are due this morning and are somehow expected to print a slight improvement in November, but a slight improvement per se won’t be enough to lift mood in Europe while Trump’s tariff threat is taking a toll. The Stoxx 600 rebounded yesterday, probably on the expectation that a softer European Central Bank (ECB) policy could boost valuations, but the ECB will probably remain more cautious than many expect when it comes to easing policy because a rapid appreciation of the US dollar will have a boosting effect on global (and euro area) inflation and could eventually limit the ECB’s ability to cut wholeheartedly.

In Japan, the likelihood of further policy normalization is melting by the day. There is still hope – for the yen bulls – that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will deliver another rate hike in December or January, but to me, the December meeting is probably off the table, and January is on a very slippery ground. One of the new PM Ishiba’s closest allies, Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa, attended the BoJ meeting for the first time and he said that it’s important for the BoJ to continue monetary easing to ensure a complete end of deflation. Of course, this man is responsible for Economic Revitalization, and of course he has appetite for favourable monetary policy, but the BoJ has more doves on board than hawks, and the rising global uncertainties look increasingly supportive of the yen bears until a new FX intervention is triggered. Soft yen, combined with the government’s pledge to support growth – especially in tech space – remain supportive of the Nikkei.

In energy, the barrel of US crude kicked off the week on a negative note. Gloomy outlook for China both due to the sluggish fundamentals and Trump threat, the Chinese authorities’ inability to meet the market’s demand in terms of fiscal stimulus and the idea that the Trump administration will ‘drill baby drill’ sent the barrel of US crude below the $68pb this morning. Trend and momentum indicators have turned negative and the RSI suggests that there is room for further selloff before the market hits the oversold conditions. Next natural target for the bears stands at $65pb. As such, it’s probably just a matter of time for the USDCAD to reach the 1.40 psychological mark.

Elsewhere, the AUDUSD is bearing the brunt of falling iron ore prices on sluggish Chinese growth outlook and the energy and mining heavy FTSE 100 was better bid yesterday and should benefit from a broad-based USD strength, but a softer pound alone won’t enough to keep the FTSE 100 in the actual bullish trend. The sluggish China and the prospects of higher-than-otherwise global yields – as the US is expected to exports its Trumpflation – look unpromising. The major support to the past year’s rebound stands a few points above the 8000p psychological mark.