Outlook 2025: Peter van der Welle (Robeco)
Outlook 2025: Peter van der Welle (Robeco)
This text was originally written in Dutch
By Peter van der Welle, Multi-assetstrateeg, Robeco
What is the economic outlook for 2025?
'We expect another challenging year for the global economy, characterised by conflicting signals and complex dynamics. Under our baseline scenario, US growth weakens in 2025 due to cooling consumption and higher tariffs. Other regions, notably Europe and China, are climbing out of the trough, but are under constant pressure in the process.
However, there is the risk of global stagflationary pressures due to escalating trade tariffs, geopolitical tensions and high military spending. A stagflationary turnaround could prove to be a powerful countercurrent in an otherwise resilient US economy. This underscores the need for flexibility in multi-asset allocation.
We foresee US equities continuing their rise, with valuations of the S&P 500 high after a year of strong performance. However, market sentiment could turn abruptly if macroeconomic narratives change, highlighting the importance of diversified and dynamic portfolio management. Caution is needed for high-yield bonds, where spreads are tight, while investment-grade euro-denominated credits look more attractive than their US counterparts.
Looking ahead, we expect changing macro data, US trade policy and global liquidity to all impact asset class returns in 2025.
The ongoing economic challenges may cause some companies and investors to place less importance on sustainability in the short term. However, the overall trajectory towards decarbonisation remains intact. We expect momentum towards global sustainability goals to continue beyond 2025.'
Under our baseline scenario, US growth weakens in 2025.